The Russian Mere network has more and more problems in Poland. Boycott, problems with suppliers – Economy

Immediately after Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, gas imports from Russia to the EU increased by 40%. – Polish Institute of Economics reports.Photo: shutterstock / 63ru78

“Despite the sanctions, the revenue from the sale of large amounts of raw materials and the lack of full control over the flow of Russian capital means that the current sanctions are not effective enough and the Putin regime is still a stable source of funding for its criminal activities,” PIE said. analysts believe.

Russia’s losses are declining due to growing demand from the rest of the world

It should be noted that in 2020, 37% of the total oil volume fell to oil. Russia’s export value. Some foreign companies are reluctant to buy Russian raw materials, forcing Russia to sell oil at $ 30 a barrel, at a 25 percent discount. Norway is cheaper than Brent oil.

– Russia’s losses are reduced due to growing demand from other regions of the world, which are attracted at attractive prices. Indian refineries have ordered 5 million barrels of overestimated oil from Russia – a move that weakens the impact of European sanctions. If sanctions are not lifted, we will witness more crimes against humanity. The United Nations has announced mass graves in Mariupol, which is under siege by Russian troops. That’s why Russia’s budget needs to be cut from the West, said Piotr Arak, director of the Polish Institute of Economics.

EU dependence on gas imports from Russia

According to PIE, the impact of sanctions is weakened by the increase in gas imports from the European Union. Immediately after Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, gas imports from Russia to the EU increased by 40%. The European Union plans to significantly reduce Russian gas imports next year, negotiate new agreements and use resources in solidarity. At the same time, Russia is trying to take advantage of the EU’s import dependence and demand payments in rubles in violation of previously signed agreements – such a move would undermine existing sanctions against Russian banks.

– Trade in energy resources helps stabilize the Russian currency. The imposition of the first sanctions resulted in panic in the Russian financial markets – the ruble rose from 80 to 145 against the US dollar. However, trade in raw materials led to the stabilization of the Russian currency – the exchange rate fell below 100 again. This is a result of maintaining Russia’s oil and gas exports. Marcin Klucznik, an analyst at the PIE macroeconomic group, said that if the ruble remained stable, the Russian economy would enter a shallow recession.

The Russian market is stabilizing

PIE assessed the stabilization of Russia’s financial market. In response to the sanctions, Russia imposed controls on capital. Required regulations include a ban on the sale of foreign currency by Russian companies, a ban on the sale of financial assets by foreign investors, and a ban on trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange. Along with the inflow of foreign currency from the sale of oil and gas, these measures helped stabilize the Russian market – the Moscow Stock Exchange is systematically restored.

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According to PIE analysts, despite the official ban on financial trade, the Putin regime is likely to continue to import some consumer goods. Neither the European Union nor the United States has full control over the flow of Russian capital. The Russians are likely to transfer funds to society through a complex network of intermediaries.

– For example, Russian banks can place assets in the non-sanctioned banking sector, and then use such an account to create special purpose vehicles in different parts of the world. These companies enter into agreements with European banks to place their deposits and settle accounts. In this case, the funds go to European banks. Some banks have been deliberately lifted from financial sanctions in order to make uninterrupted payments for Russian oil and gas. Moreover, sanctions do not exclude agreements reached before Russia’s aggression. The embargo on some luxury goods will be officially imposed in June – exports may continue for months. Only new operations are prohibited, said Marcin Klucznik.

PR24, akg

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